nuclear options
China Industrial policy
commits $50 bln for Nuclear Power Technology
Date: Tue, 31 Jan 2006 18:59:07 -0500 From: "David
Chiang"
<sino.economics@verizon.net>
UPDATE:
WASHINGTON, March 8 (UPI) --
China has embarked on a revolutionary shift in social and
economic priorities in an attempt to repair some of the
damage done to the environment and social system by two
decades of breakneck economic growth. The new five-year
plan now being presented to the current session of the
People's Congress, the nearest China has to a parliament,
sees a marked shift of resources to the lagging rural
sector, to neglected social problems like health care and
pensions and to the country's badly battered environment.
"Some deeply seated conflicts that have accumulated
over a long time have yet to be fundamentally resolved,
and new problems have arisen that cannot be
ignored," Premier Wen Jiabao told the 3,000 Congress
delegates. "We must pay more attention to social
equity and social stability so that all the people can
enjoy the fruits of reform and development."
"Building a 'new socialist countryside' is a major
historic task," he went on, reflecting Beijing's
mounting alarm at the growing gaps between rich and poor
and between urban and rural areas. The government's own
findings recorded 87,000 protests and "other
incidents of discontent" last year. MARTIN WALKER,
UPI Editor
China
Leaps Forward
The people's republic is embarking on the world's biggest
nuclear building
spree.
BY SARAH SCHAFER
Newsweek International http://msnbc.msn.com/id/11080908/site/newsweek/
Feb. 6, 2006 issue - American businessman Edwin
deSteiguer Snead went to China seeking a future for
nuclear energy. He's pretty sure he found it. On a recent
bitterly cold day, Snead took a ride out to a military
zone northwest of Beijing, not far from one of the most
well-known sections of China's Great Wall. In the spartan
lobby of an unassuming concrete office building that
contains the
control center of a nuclear reactor, Snead studied a
model of the reactor, housed in a hillside at the site.
Nuclear scientist Chang Wei pointed at the model, which
looked like a basement furnace split down the middle, and
explained how the design - including 27,000 balls of
uranium wrapped in layers of super-strong silicon
carbide, ceramic material and graphite - makes it
physically impossible for the reactor to do anything but
shut down if something goes wrong; the dangerous uranium
would be trapped inside the spheres, which have a melting
point much higher than the temperature inside the reactor
could ever reach.
"So let me see if I can describe it in Texas
English," said Snead, 76, an entrepreneur who hopes
to build a nuclear power plant on 55 acres in Texas.
"There's no way it can explode or melt?"
Chang nodded in the affirmative. She went on to explain
how the design requires only a fraction of the
control-room staff a more conventional reactor would
need. Snead, apparently impressed, exclaimed that this
newfangled Chinese technology may be the key to assuaging
the nuclear fears of Americans. He wants to go back and
sell the idea to Texas A&M University or another
school willing to back a research center. "I think
the Americans will be buying nuclear plants from China
within five years," he said.
While experts in the United States and Europe talk about
reviving plans for nuclear power, China, as in so many
other fields, is racing ahead. The so-called pebblebed
technology behind the Beijing test plant originated in
Germany more than three decades ago, and the U.S.
nuclear-power industry also pursued it. But when public
opposition to nuclear energy forced those countries to
curtail nuclear research in the 1980s, Beijing took over.
China expects to complete a small commercial plant, which
will produce 195 megawatts of electricity, within five
years in the eastern province of Shandong. Huaneng Power,
one of the country's largest electricity companies, is
ponying up about half the $300 million price tag. What
makes the pebblebed technology so important is its
fail-safe design-it would not be possible for the reactor
to melt down or explode like Chernobyl or Three Mile
Island. The uranium in each sphere can't get hot enough
to melt the casing and escape. Also, the main coolant for
the system is inert helium, not water, as is used in
other types of reactors (water, of course, contains
oxygen, which is combustible). As global warming and
politics render the world's reliance on fossil fuels
problematic, China may in a few short years hold the key
to a renaissance in nuclear power.
And the pebblebed reactor is only a small part of China's
nuclear ambitions. In the past few years, Beijing has
embarked on the boldest nuclear-energy plan since the one
orchestrated by the United States in the 1970s. Chinese
leaders recognize that their reliance on fossil fuels -
about 80 percent of China's energy comes from coal - is
unsustainable. Nuclear power has thus become an essential
part of their plan to prevent an energy and environmental
crisis. China intends to increase its output of nuclear
power at least fourfold by 2020, from 8,700 to 36,000
megawatts. That will require building up to three
reactors a year until then. So far, Beijing has committed
$50 billion toward
construction. China will soon add two more reactors to
the nine it already has running. At least 16 provinces
and municipalities plan to build nuclear power plants.
The goal is to derive at least 4 percent of the country's
energy from nuclear power in 15 years. Although that's
far behind today's world average of 16 percent, it will
amount to the biggest nuclear-construction binge the
world has seen in decades. Already, China's enthusiasm
for nuclear power is helping rekindle interest among
countries that had abandoned their own programs
(following story).
China is positioned to leapfrog the world in nuclear
power precisely because it entered the race late. Until
now, the country has built a hodgepodge of reactors with
different technologies and safety features. But recently
top leaders decided to build a newer infrastructure
virtually from scratch based on the most advanced, and
safest, technologies. Although the pebble-bed reactor is
not yet ready for prime time, the government is buying
equipment and designs that have never been built before.
China plans to choose one design of three submitted by
Areva of France, Atomstroyexport of Russia and
Westinghouse Electric for an $8 billion program to build
reactors in the eastern province of Zhejiang. (Some
industry experts say Areva will probably win, especially
since the Chinese government may bristle at the recent
takeover bid by Japan's Toshiba on Westinghouse.) The
Chinese plan to work closely with the winner to learn how
to design and operate the reactors. The goal is to use
this technology as the basis for subsequent Chinese
plants.
The ultimate goal is to improve China's own design and
construction capabilities so it will not have to rely on
foreigners to build and operate the country's reactors.
Eventually, Beijing hopes to export some of its own
expertise in the construction and operation of plants,
ultimately contributing power-plant designs as well. Its
contracts with foreign firms are thus structured to
maximize technology sharing. In fact, Beijing recently
delayed awarding the Zhejiang contract in part to squeeze
even more concessions from the bidders (as well as to get
a better price): the Westinghouse technology, for
example, uses state-of-the-art passive safety design,
which China's engineers hope to learn. The Chinese
leadership is expected to announce soon a sharp increase
in plans for research in nuclear reactors. "I think
that, unfortunately, in the U.S. we've lost our market
leadership," says Andrew Kadak, a professor in the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology's nuclear-science
and engineering department who has worked on joint
programs with the Chinese. "We're going to be
watching how emerging nations of the world, such as China
and South Africa, do with these technologies and perhaps
follow them, which is sad to say."
The most likely technology to export, of course, is the
pebblebed reactor. All reactors, including the pebblebed,
use uranium fuel to produce heat that is used to turn
electrical turbines. In conventional so-called
light-water reactors, the heat is generated by thousands
of fixed metallic rods, which require elaborate cooling
systems to keep them from overheating and backup cooling
systems in case the primary ones fail. Furthermore, a
conventional reactor must be housed in a concrete
containment vessel to mitigate damage in case it
overheats. In the pebblebed reactor,thousands of
tennis-ball-size spheres coated in layers of silicon
carbide, ceramic material and graphite each contain
thousands of granules of the fuel, uranium dioxide.
Because the pebbles dissipate heat so efficiently, say
the designers, the fuel inside them couldn't possibly get
hot enough to penetrate the graphite casing. The
pebble-bed reactor, in fact, doesn't even have a
containment vessel. Another advantage of pebblebeds is
that it's easier to make small plants and put them up
quickly, which lends itself to China's plan of spreading
plants around the hinterlands. Extracting fuel from
pebblebed reactors to use for weapons would be difficult
and expensive.
Engineers at the research facility outside Beijing are
working to create a next-generation version that will use
helium as a coolant, rather than water. The facility is
run by the Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology
of Beijing's Tsinghua University (with cooperation from
MIT) and Chinergy, a company owned in part by the
institute and partly by the state-owned China Nuclear
Engineering Group. The only other country actively
working on a commercial pebblebed reactor is South
Africa, but the project has faced delays due to pressure
from environmentalists; many experts expect China, which
keeps its greens on a short leash, to finish first. Other
countries are interested in the technology because one of
its byproducts is hydrogen, a potential energy source.
Some experts worry that Beijing's grand plan could
founder over political turf battles. For one thing, it's
not certain that the large electric-power utilities will
buy into the central government's vision. Even though
nuclear power has strong political support from the
leadership, the state-owned utilities are mostly
con-trolled by provincial and local governments, many of
which are poor and would prefer cheaper sources of
energy. Some provincial officials also have ties to
traditional energy companies.
Construction and contract delays could also scuttle
China's ambitions, forcing authorities to resort to using
older reactor technologies it can put up quickly. Many
have fewer automatic-safety features and therefore are
more vulnerable to human error. And using many different
technologies would both preclude the economies of scale
that make construction cheaper and operation safer, and
slow the anticipated blistering pace of construction.
"If you have one type of reactor, you can give very
clear management procedures to reduce risk," says
Wang Yi, assistant director for the Institute of Policy
and Management at the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
"China already has so many types of reactors that it
could cause problems in the future."
Safety is also a growing concern. For one thing, experts
such as Wang claim that Beijing does not have a clear
strategy for dealing with spent fuel. The country has a
spent-fuel storage facility that could eventually hold up
to about 1,100 tons. There is also a pilot reprocessing
plant in the works, but Beijing has no comprehensive plan
to handle the waste from all the plants it's building;
that could reach 3,800 tons by 2010, according to the
World Nuclear Association. As Chinese grow more
environmentally aware, they may balk at the idea of
storage facilities in their backyards.
Indeed, even if China avoids accidents, a growing
domestic environmental movement could slow its
nuclear-energy strategy. Twenty years after the disaster
at Chernobyl and nearly 30 years since the Three Mile
Island incident, leaders such as British Prime Minister
Tony Blair, Australian Prime Minister John Howard and
U.S. President George W. Bush have only recently begun to
suggest the
possibility of re-examining nuclear energy. The Chinese
government has been careful to treat its pursuit of
nuclear energy as a potential boon to the economy and a
source of nationalism. It has also discouraged public
debate of the risks. Towns with reactors advertise them
as though they were national treasures. On the road to
the Qinshan nuclear power plant in Zhejiang province, for
example, visitors are welcomed with propaganda. construct
nuclear power, make the people wealthy, reads one sign.
But environmental activism is catching on in China, as
witnessed by the public outcry over the toxic chemical
spill in the Songhua River.
Even if the nuclear strategy is a runaway success, it
won't come close to solving China's energy problems.
Demand far surpasses supply - in large part because
Chinese companies are notoriously inefficient energy
consumers. China is quickly running out of raw materials,
such as coal, while demand for electricity has seen
double-digit growth for more than three years.
Renewable-energy sources won't come close to meeting
China's needs. But that only fuels the urgency Chinese
officials express when discussing the nuclear boom.
"We need every type of energy," says Zhang
Zuoyi, head of the institute that helps run the pebblebed
test reactor. "We are hungry." China's leaders
won't listen to naysayers. They can't afford to.
from P.Myers
Booming China helps commodity
prices boom
By John Waggoner, USA TODAY
Commodities are the hottest - well, commodities -
on the financial markets
today. http://www.usatoday.com/money/markets/2006-02-02-commodities-2_x.htm
The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index gained
7.8% the past 12 months, but the contents of your
sugar bowl have soared more than 100%. Prices of
copper, orange juice, oil and cotton have all
posted double-digit gains. And the Commodities
Research Bureau index, which measures a broad
basket of commodities, has gained 23%.
Those big gains have spurred new interest in
commodities. The price of a seat on the New York
Board of Trade, for example, blasted past the
$500,000 mark this year for the first time - and
jumped to $650,000 on Tuesday. Volume on the
board of trade soared 20% last year. At the
Chicago Board of Trade, January volume jumped 22%
from January 2005.
What's driving commodity prices? Two words:
energy and China.
Consider sugar, up 104% the past 12 months. The
U.S. Agriculture Department estimates that
worldwide sugar output will rise 3.3 million tons
to 144.2 million tons this year. Consumption is
forecast at 142.8 million tons, leaving little
room for any rise in consumption.
Much of that new demand is not for sweeteners,
but for auto fuel. Brazil, the world's largest
sugar producer, uses half its sugar output for
producing ethanol, an increasingly popular
gasoline substitute. Flexible-fuel vehicles in
Brazil, which can run on regular gasoline or
ethanol, accounted for 46% of Brazil's auto sales
last year.
Brazil's ethanol use is being keenly watched by
other countries, says C. Harry Falk, president of
the New York Board of Trade.
"The world has realized that you can make
ethanol out of sugar cane," Falk says.
"Thailand, Argentina, India and China are
all planning ethanol facilities."
Demand for sugar cane, combined with reduced
crops in the USA because of hurricane damage,
have sent prices soaring this year.
China's gross domestic product grew 10.1% last
year, which is one reason the prices of oil, gas
and sugar are soaring. China's growth is pushing
up prices of many other commodities, as well.
The extent of building in China is staggering,
says Richard Asplund, chief economist for the
Commodity Research Bureau.
The Chinese building boom has raised demand for
copper, used in wiring and plumbing. And rising
concern for the environment has made it hard to
open new mines. "Mine production isn't
keeping up with demand," Asplund says.
Copper isn't the only raw material being buoyed
by China's prosperity. Nickel and steel prices
have surged, too. And cotton prices have gained
27% over the past 12 months.
"As China and India have gotten wealthier,
the demand for new clothes has increased,"
Asplund says.
Coffee prices are booming because of popular
tastes. High-end, expensive coffee - the kind
that sells for $3 a cup in the USA - is in big
demand. As growers produce more expensive java,
the supply of standard coffee falls. That drives
prices up. Fears of bad weather in coffee-growing
regions can send coffee prices soaring.
Big gains on the commodity exchanges have drawn
in new investors. But other factors, too, are
driving up the volume on commodity exchanges:
*Inflation fears. Rising prices of raw materials
can herald widespread inflation, which can
devastate stocks and bonds. Investing in
commodities can offset some of inflation's
damage.
*Speculators. Traditionally, raw materials
producers and consumers account for 85% of the
activity on the futures exchanges. They use
futures to lock in prices and reduce the risk of
big increases in raw materials costs. In recent
years, though, exchanges have seen activity by
hedge funds and other investment firms jump 20%
or more, and investors now account for about 40%
of the exchange activity, Falk says.
*The dollar. Foreign central banks hold vast
amounts of U.S. dollars. Japan, for example,
keeps about $736 billion in dollar-denominated
assets, according to an estimate by Grant's
Interest Rate Observer, a newsletter. China holds
about $570 billion. "There's pressure to use
those dollars for buying commodities," Falk
says.
Even if other countries buy fewer
dollar-denominated assets, commodities could
benefit. Most commodities are priced in dollars.
And a declining dollar makes commodities cheaper
for foreigners to buy That, in turn, could push
up demand.
The commodities bull market began in late 2001.
Commodity boosters say that periods of rising
prices can last a decade or more. But it's no
sure thing. Bountiful crops, good weather and new
oil strikes could all send prices tumbling. And
there's always the chance that China's boom could
go bust.
"If China stumbles, it could have big
consequences for world commodity markets,"
warns CRB's Asplund.
From: "David Chiang"
<sino.economics@verizon.net>
from PMyers.
Reports: China, Iran near huge
oil deal
ELAINE KURTENBACH
Associated Press
SHANGHAI, China - China and
Iran are close to setting plans to
develop Iran's Yadavaran oil field,
according to published reports, in a
multibillion-dollar deal that comes as
Tehran faces the prospect of sanctions
over its nuclear program.
The deal is thought potentially to be
worth about $100 billion.
According to Caijing, a respected
financial magazine, a Chinese government
delegation is due to visit Iran as early
as March to formally sign an agreement
allowing China Petrochemical Corp., also
known as Sinopec, to develop Yadavaran.
The Wall Street Journal also reported
in Friday's editions that the two sides
are trying to conclude the deal in coming
weeks before potential sanctions are
imposed on Iran for its nuclear
ambitions. The report cited unnamed
Iranian oil ministry officials familiar
with the talks.
The deal would complete a memorandum
of understanding signed in 2004.
In exchange for developing Yadavaran,
one of Iran's largest onshore oil fields,
China would agree to buy 10 million tons
of liquefied natural gas a year for 25
years beginning in 2009, the Caijing
report said, citing Sinopec board member
Mou Shuling.
Chinese and Iranian officials in
Beijing said they could not confirm the
report.
"I know nothing about this. I
can't answer your questions," said
Ma Li, a spokeswoman for the National
Development and Reform Commission, the
planning agency in charge of China's
energy and resources industries that
Caijing said would dispatch officials to
Iran.
Staff at Iran's embassy in Beijing
said they were aware of the report but
had not heard Mou's remarks, which
Caijing said were made at a recent
embassy event.
A written statement from the Iranian
Embassy noted that the two countries have
been working together in various energy
fields, "following the rule of
mutual benefits and respect in all
bilateral cooperation."
Calls to Sinopec's headquarters were
not answered late Friday.
The Caijing report said Chinese and
Iranian officials met in December for
talks on the project. It cited Mou as
saying the two governments and companies
involved were moving ahead with the deal
despite the controversy over Iran's
nuclear program.
According to the Caijing report,
Sinopec would hold a 51 percent stake in
the Yadavaran project, with India's Oil
and Natural Gas Corp., or ONGC, taking 29
percent. The remainder would go to
Iranian companies and possibly to Royal
Dutch Shell PLC, which has also expressed
interest, it said.
The report said there was some
disagreement over intended capacity, with
Iran asking China to agree to daily
output of 300,000 barrels of oil, while
Sinopec preferred to set a target of
180,000 to avoid excess production.
Sinopec, Asia's largest refiner, has
shares traded in New York, London, Hong
Kong and Shanghai.
China, seeking oil and gas to fuel its
booming economy amid stagnant production
at home, has been snapping up energy
resources in places as far flung as
Venezuela, Kazakhstan, Nigeria and
Australia. Its investments in Iran and
Sudan have prompted complaints it is
undermining diplomatic efforts to bring
recalcitrant regimes in line.
Beijing has strongly urged that a
diplomatic solution be found to the
impasse over Iran's nuclear program.
Western nations fear that Iran plans
to develop nuclear weapons, but Iran
insists its intentions are purely for
generating electricity. Growing
international concern about its aims
contributed to Tehran being reported to
the U.N. Security Council by the
35-nation board of the International
Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N.'s nuclear
watchdog.
On Thursday, France's foreign
minister, Philippe Douste-Blazy, accused
Iran of secretly making nuclear weapons.
The Security Council is due to
consider Iran's nuclear activities next
month. The council has the power to
impose economic and political sanctions
on Iran, but members China and Russia
could exercise their veto power against
such measures.
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